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harbinger | noun
har·bin·ger | \ˈhär-bən-jər\
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'Nuclear Multipolarity' panel discussion at the MSC 2025.
Europe risks facing a “dangerous deterrence gap” unless it urgently rethinks its nuclear options, according to a major new report released ahead of the Munich Security Conference 2026, taking place on 13–15 February.
The report, entitled Mind the Deterrence Gap: Assessing Europe’s Nuclear Options, was prepared by the European Nuclear Study Group and is being presented to policymakers and defence experts gathered in Munich.
Writing from Munich before the conference kicks off, Harbingers’ highlights the report’s warning that the global nuclear order is shifting.
The study argues that repeated nuclear threats from Moscow, combined with growing doubts in some European capitals about the long-term reliability of US security guarantees, are forcing Europe to confront a strategic question it has long avoided.
The report’s authors, a multinational team of defence and security experts, assess five options currently circulating in the political debate.
These are: continued reliance on US extended nuclear deterrence; strengthening the role of British and French nuclear forces in European deterrence; developing a common European deterrent; pursuing new, independent national nuclear deterrents; and investing in conventional deterrence without a nuclear component.
The authors stop short of endorsing any single option. Instead, they stress that each path involves significant political, financial and strategic trade-offs.
“There is no good option for Europe to assure deterrence with less US support,” the report concludes. But ignoring the issue, it warns, could leave Europe dangerously exposed in a rapidly deteriorating security environment.
For decades, nuclear policy has remained a politically sensitive topic across much of Europe. The study group argues that discussion about nuclear policy is now unavoidable.
“However uncomfortable the debate may be, the new security environment requires European policymakers to confront the role of nuclear weapons in the defence of the continent directly and without delay,” the authors write.
The European Nuclear Study Group, established in 2024, is a joint initiative of the Munich Security Conference, the Centre for International Security at the Hertie School in Berlin, and the Institute of Political Science at the University of St Gallen, Switzerland.
The group focuses on strategic doctrines, nuclear modernisation and contributes to the widening transatlantic debate on the new nuclear age.
As leaders and experts continue discussions in Munich this weekend, this report adds urgency to questions that could shape Europe’s security framework for years to come.
© 2026 The Oxford School for the Future
